When will COVID-19 end? The situation now as the coronavirus rages on

The coronavirus pandemic isn’t even close to being over. More than 20.2 million people worldwide have been known to be infected, and over 740,000 have died from COVID-19. Some countries are experiencing a second wave of infections while others, like the US, have only seen the outbreak worsen without respite.

Whether or not to fully reopen schools, restaurants and bars are now political flashpoints, as it becomes clearer around the globe that coronavirus cases have spread when people are in close proximity. In one school district in Georgia, over 1,000 students and staff are now in quarantine as a result of positive test results that span every age group. 

A coronavirus vaccine is in development, with more than 165 vaccine projects in the works around the globe. Russia approved a coronavirus vaccine at a pace that concerns medical experts, and China has a vaccine it’s testing on members of the military.

Bill Gates has predicted that “the rich world” will get a vaccine by the end of 2021. And lockdown won’t go away completely until coronavirus does, according to a study published in The Lancet in August.

Read on for the latest news, what experts say about a second wave, and why the medical community is concerned about the coronavirus pandemic leading into the fall. This story updates often and is intended to provide background information only, not medical advice.

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Global coronavirus pandemic: The latest news

• Total historical US coronavirus cases surpassed 5.1 million in the second week of August, including nearly 2.5 million active cases and over 165,000 deaths.
• Statewide lockdown measures vary tremendously across the US, with about half of states pausing or reversing reopening and half reopening or reopened. 

Quit looking for waves

Call them surges. Call them spikes. But, as Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota claims, “They’re not waves.” Then what’s going on? “This is like a forest fire, full steam ahead,” he said. “And wherever there’s human wood to burn, it’ll do it. What we see, though, are these spikes in cases where [lockdowns] ended, or they’re not adhering to them.”

“We are still in the first wave,” Vanderbilt epidemiologist Loren Lipworth told the Washington Post. “As we ease up on restrictions, there is always going to be a resurgence in cases. It’s not that it’s a new wave of the virus.”

Why do coronavirus cases go up and down so much?

At one point, about 90% of everyone in the US was under some sort of lockdown order and the curve was starting to flatten. But that all began to change in the second half of April, when a few states started loosening lockdown restrictions. By June, most of the country had almost fully reopened. Not long after, new cases began to surge once again.

Epidemiologists have identified a strong correlation between lockdown and case levels. Basically, wherever you look, cases drop when lockdown orders are issued — and shoot back up right after restrictions start lifting. The only thing that seems to disrupt the trend is how well an area’s population adheres to disease prevention measures like wearing face masks and limiting social gatherings.

In July, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr, Robert Redfield said, “I think if we could get everybody [in the US] to wear a mask right now, I think in four, six, eight weeks we could bring this epidemic under control.”

Why are experts worried about coronavirus in the fall?

Most public health experts — including Redfield and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases — have said they anticipate a big uptick to happen this fall and winter. The White House has admitted it’s preparing for the possibility. However, part of that prediction was based on the assumption that the virus would slow down over the summer, which appears not to be happening.

Much of the attention aimed at fall has now shifted to concern over the possibility of two potentially lethal viruses circulating at the same time — COVID-19 and the seasonal flu, the latter of which kills around 40,000 people in the US per year. Because of certain overlapping symptoms such as fever and a cough, it may be harder for individuals and doctors to immediately determine which infection you have.

“The real risk is that we’re going to have two circulating respiratory pathogens at the same time,” Dr. Redfield warned when he spoke to Time Magazine regarding the upcoming flu season. Also, if severe COVID-19 infections continue to push hospitals to the brink of their capacity and abilities, it may also be harder to care for potentially virulent flu patients.

The CDC is nudging drug manufacturers to produce millions more doses of flu vaccine this year than usual in anticipation of greater demand. Typically, fewer than half of all US adults take the flu vaccine in any given year, but that rate increases to about two out of three for adults over 65, a population the CDC has identified as being at a higher risk for more severe COVID-19 infections. 

Are we headed for another lockdown?

Health experts, including the US’s top infectious disease expert Dr. Fauci and Dr. Ali Khan, the former director of the CDC’s public health preparedness office, have said that it’s possible to avoid a full lockdown, but there are conditions.

States must effectively test for coronavirus and follow that testing up with contact tracing. And people must change their behavior to make social distancing and mask wearing part of daily life. Only then would it be possible to flatten the curve without having to revert back to a full-blown lockdown. Otherwise, as new cases continue to skyrocket, “your only option is to shut down,” Khan said.

More than likely, we will see various levels of lockdown come and go in different areas, depending on where the virus flares up and dies down, until we find a coronavirus vaccine. Even then, however, we might not be in the clear just yet. 

“We will be dealing with this virus forever. Effective and safe vaccines and hopefully ones with some durability will be very important, even critical tools, in fighting it,” Osterholm said. “But the whole world is going to be experiencing COVID-19 ‘til the end of time.”

For more on the coronavirus, here’s what’s happening with coronavirus vaccine development, what to do if you or someone you live with gets COVID-19 and how to vacation safely during coronavirus this summer.